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Whatever Happened To H1N1?

Nearly one year after the first wave of outbreaks, some doctors are unsure

The swine flu buzz certainly has faded, but can the same be said for the threat of the virus?

Not yet, says Matthew Davis, M.D., associate professor of pediatrics and communicable diseases at the University of Michigan’s Medical School. “What public health historians worry about is that there will be three waves of H1N1 illness,” he says. “And we’ve only had two.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, the first wave occurred in the spring of 2009, followed by a second wave in the fall, peaking in late October. Because the virus first struck during spring months that are typically outside of flu season, Davis says a third wave could strike at an equally unpredictable time.

And since H1N1 caused the deaths of nearly 240 American children this past year, parents should stay vigilant. “More children have died from H1N1 illness in the last year than are thought to have died from seasonal flu illness in the past three to four years combined,” Davis says. “And we can’t be sure it’s not coming back.”

The easiest way to protect yourself and your children from another potential outbreak is vaccination. According to a recent C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital National Poll, however, more parents are worried about the safety of the vaccine than the virus itself. Davis, who directed the poll, says only 30 percent of American children have received the vaccine, meaning a third outbreak could still put the majority at risk.

“Parents worry about safety, and worry whether the risk of a new vaccine is worth the benefit that their kids will get,” he says. “Fortunately, the H1N1 vaccine is quite similar in how it’s made to seasonal flu vaccine.”

And with more than 60 million doses of the vaccine safely and effectively administered, compared to thousands of unvaccinated children who were hospitalized as a result of the illness, Davis feels the numbers speak for themselves. “To me, that’s a fairly simple decision for families to make,” he says.

To find the nearest vaccination center, use the vaccine locator at www.flu.gov.

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